Avination metrics 2011-09-10

These metrics have been compiled from various open sources at Avination. Owing to different starting times for the collection of different metrics, the curves cover different time spans, but to facilitate comparisons, the same time axis have been chosen for all metrics.

Accounts



This is presented as "Total users" on the Avination splash screen, but is actually the total numbers of accounts created, whether they are original or alts, have ever been used at all, not been used more than once or not for a long time, or are in use at present. The number will never decrease, since accounts are never deleted.



The curve over new accounts per day shows that it has been decreasing by 90%, from more than 600 per day early February 2011, to about 60 per day lately, and the trend for it is still decreasing.

Unique accounts



This is presented as "Unique (users) last 30 days", but is is actually the sum of unique accounts visiting since but not including the same day of the previous month to and including the day of the present month. This results in upwards shifts on the last day or days of some "long" months, since it's shifted from the non-existant days on the previous "short" months, i.e. zero values, e.g. on 2011-03-29 - 31, 2011-05-31 and 2011-07-31. It also results in downward shifts on the first day of some long months, because the count is reduced by one or more days, e.g. from 2011-01-29 - 2011-02-28 (31 days) to 2011-02-02 - 2011-03-01 (28 days) hidden in the surrounding slope, from 2011-03-31 - 2011-04-30 (31 days) to 2011-04-02 - 2011-05-01 (30 days), or from 2011-05-31 - 2011-06-30 (31 days) to 2011-06-02 - 2011-07-01 (30 days).

Also, on 2011-02-25, this counter was reset, hence the odd shape of the curve between then and a month later, when it had recovered. A reconstruction of the probable real curve shows it would have peaked at about 10,500 accounts on 2011-03-13. Since then, it has decreased to less than half of it, about 5,200 and the trend for it is still decreasing.

A derivative of this curve is shown in pale color below the main curve. This is the number of unique accounts visiting and that is more than one month old. This shows that these "core" users are more stable in number than the total, which is much affected by new accounts never used or just used a few times before abandoned. Even after most other curves started decreasing, this curve showed a weak increase until early June 2011, when it decreased from about 4,500 to 3,500 in a month, to stabilize at that new level. The start of this decrease co-incides with the breaking news that Avination had hired the "reformed" black-hat developer JCool / Fractured Crystal, and the one month decrease following is the expected response from a one-month cumulative curve like this to a point event. No other significant, negative events were seen early June, so it's probable that the JCool hiring and loss of 22% of the user core are connected. Lately, the trend for this curve is again decreasing.

Concurrency



This is the daily average of simultaneously logged in users. It has decreased by about 50% from 200 to 100 during the period early June 2011 to early August 2011, but appears to have stabilized around the latter level during the last month.

Regions



This is the total number of regions according to Avination. It has steadily decreased from about 1120 regions early May 2011 to about 800 regions today, a decrease with 320 regions or 29%. However, some 40 of these regions don't exist on the main grid, and an additional 140 are maintained by Avination management et. alts, many of these locked test sims, so the number of "real", paid regions has decreased from about 940 to about 620, a decrease with 320 regions or 34%

Sales



This is the sales through one of the major vendor leasers in Avination, CasperTech. They established in Avination in late January 2011, and was expanding rapidly, gaining market shares, until something happened with economy late Mars 2011, and the CasperVend sales dropped rapidly in Avination, while still increasing in other virtual worlds. If the drop in Avination is corrected for the continued increase in other virtual worlds (the pale, lower curve), the total drop was more than 90%, which was also confirmed by several independent merchants in Avination. So far, no general recovery from this decrease in sales has been reported.

Time to live

This is an estimate of when the decrease in the various parameters, calculated by linear regression over the last 4 weeks, would make Avination hit rock bottom, e.g. run out of users, usage or regions. The Account estimate tells when Avination would have needed to be launched to reach its present number of accounts with its present growth.

	Accounts	Unique	Concurrency	Regions	Paid regions
Now	38754	5214	99	813	633
D/day	62,15	-30,38	-0,67	-1,89	-1,89
Zero-date	09-12-25	12-02-28	12-02-05	12-11-12	12-08-09